John Scala wrote a 2015 commentary in the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang entitled, U.S. National Ocean Service website, "The population density of coastal shoreline counties is over six times greater than the corresponding inland counties."ĭr. From 1970 to 2010, the population of these counties increased by almost 40% and are projected to increase by an additional 10 million people or 8% by 2020." According to the U.S. National Ocean Service "in the United States, counties directly on the shoreline constitute less than 10% of the total land area (not including Alaska), but account for 39% of the total population. Source: National Climate Assessment.Īccording to the U.S. After that time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the easternĬoastal population growth.
This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. Northwestward turn is expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds westward.
They also provide some nice discussion about their thinking on track, The National Hurricane Center noted in the Wednesday morning advisory that the impacts associated with storms that are projected to parallel the coastline can be tricky because the slightest shifts left or right change impacts. Our best weather models continue to shift Matthew's track westward bringing Florida increasingly into play. Residents from coastal Georgia to the Carolinas should also monitor the storm as they are well within the cone of uncertainty for landfall or impacts. At the time of writing hurricane watches are in effect for parts of Florida and I suspect more to emerge in the coming day or so. UPDATED: The Cuban land mass slightly weakened Hurricane Matthew but it still remains a major hurricane likely to regain strength over the open water.
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